My Beautiful Wickedness


A survey that supports my contention
December 3, 2008, 12:02 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized

…so naturally, I’ll link to it approvingly (loads as a pdf). Fordham U’s Prof. Costas Panagopoulos has taken a look at the most recent election cycle and the predictive accuracy of the polls. As I told anyone who would listen, Rasmussen and Pew had the most reliable analytic methodology. (Note that Zogby, who is pollster non grata around here, ranked 18th of 23.) Other polls plumped for McCain and more overestimated Obama’s strength, but I wanted my medicine straight up. If the news is bad, at least know what that bad news is.

So, until further notice, Rasmussen and Pew are my go-to polls and 538 (Nate Silver) is my go-to analyst. Why Nate? Because he explains the strengths and weaknesses of various analytic decisions made by pollsters and makes the whole numbers game much less mysterious to the armchair wonk.

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1 Comment so far
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bridgett:

I’m just happy you were right.

Comment by democommie




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