My Beautiful Wickedness


Sometimes things become what people think they will be…
October 21, 2008, 3:41 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized

And by that, I mean that it looks like about 2/3s of likely voters concede that Obama’s probably going to win. (Even 40% of the Republicans surveyed agree.) There’s two weeks between now and Election Day and Obama’s numbers keep going up. Both on the high end and on the low end, pollsters show that he’s winning.

A lot of the polls at this point in the campaign are meant to either pump up the footsoldiers or create an aura of inevitability (see what I said above), but latest from Pew is a solid result with good internals and is worth looking at for what it does and doesn’t say. It’s a large sample (2600), it used both land and cellphones to get responses, and worst for the McCain campaign, it was taken before the Powell announcement (early reporting on that appears that it’s driving a new wave of Obama support). Anyhow, the takeaway is that Obama is up 53% to 39%, but the growing lead is because people are increasingly mistrustful of McCain and think he’s running a scummy campaign. That’s going to leave a mark. His personal invective has backfired in a serious way.

Where does that leave Obama? If he’s shrewd and the election goes his way, he’ll not allow himself to be deceived by his starry-eyed followers that the result is all about him and his awesomeness. There are a bunch of people voting against McCain and against the direction that the Republican Party has taken. Independents in particular (people who don’t give a damn about ideology, mostly) will be putting him into office because they are angry and aggravated at the way things have gone but just because they’ll pull the lever once, they won’t stick with the Democrats for off-year elections unless they see some economic results. Even a big margin, I’d argue, only opens an opportunity — not gives a mandate.

Still, got to get the man in office first before he starts governing. Remember, it’s jobs, baby, jobs. Americans want to work so that we can go back to buying too much stuff.

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1 Comment so far
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bridgett:

I don’t read polls as a rule, because they’re like reading stock market information–they just don’t mean all that much to me.

I did hear a blurt on NPR’s “All Things Considered” this evening saying that recent polls in FL indicate that the race there is a “dead heat” now. Sounds like bs to me, but like I said, I don’t put much stock by them anyway.

Comment by democommie




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