My Beautiful Wickedness

Poll wonking
September 16, 2008, 10:16 am
Filed under: Uncategorized

Demo, here’s the poll you asked about, the questions they posed, the methodology, the long-term trend chart…

The poll land-phone surveys registered voters, then does statistical fudging to determine “likely” voters — they discount younger voters (who are more likely to be stronger Obama supporters) and they pump up older voters (for whom the McCain “advantage” of age is likely to be an appeal). If they are still doing what they used to, they also weight rural upstate more heavily than urban downstate, though I can’t find what their particular formula was for this one. Finally, I think you’re still seeing bump from the convention. I don’t think it’s a push poll so much as it’s a methodology that might be skewing. And remember, it’s got a margin of error of 4%…tabulated another way, it could be that Obama is barely holding on or might have as much as a 9% advantage.

Me, I’m wondering what the hell is going on in Ohio and Indiana. Obama only down 2% on polls with a margin of error of 4%? And I see Virginia and PA are both all tied up again, according to Rasmussen.

A long way to go between here and November…


1 Comment so far
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Thanks, Bridgett. I will look at it when I get a minute or six.

Comment by democommie

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