My Beautiful Wickedness


New voter registration favoring Dems
September 4, 2008, 9:50 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized

Obama’s campaign and the DNC is engaged in the biggest voter registration campaign in national history. They’ve targeted 23 states, trained volunteers to canvass into neighborhoods where political organizing just isn’t done, and signed up impressive numbers. I really can’t add much beyond this post over at Edge of the West, which looks at new voter registration patterns in all 50 states and serves up a heaping helping of raw data for those liberal elites who like some empirical reality to their claims.

Conclusion #1: In some states, people are leaving the Republican Party in surprising numbers and few are being registered to take their place. It’s like the long primary struggle and all the ideological in-fighting in McCain’s campaign has left them unfocused on this and they’ve really dropped the ball. Traditional Republican strongholds like New Hampshire are showing negative numbers in new registration, indicating that people are leaving the party. In many battleground states, Democrats are just flat out-organizing Republicans and making it a race. For example, in very closely fought North Carolina, the first eight months have seen the registration of 20,363 new Republicans, and 171,955 Democrats. Interestingly, too, there are now 123,605 Newly unaffiliated voters in NC, most of whom have left the Republican party. In the second quarter of the year, Pennsylvania gained 289 new Republicans and 98, 137 Democrats. Places like Iowa that used to trend weak McCain are now swinging weak to moderate Obama.

Conclusion #2: Democrats efforts to register voters has worked exceptionally well, especially targeting areas where they’ve come up just short to swing states into their column. They’ve made great gains in voter strength in areas where they had been traditionally weak. Whatever it does in the presidential election, it has the potential to do something truly exceptional and unpredictable in the state and local races. After reviewing these numbers, I now expect the House to Go Blue in a significant way and probably the Senate too. Lots of old boy network county commissioners are not going to know what hit them.

Conclusion #3: GOTV becomes HUGE. If everyone that has been registered as a Democrat gets to the poll and pulls a lever (especially given the places in which they are registered…), then McCain will have a nice retirement in one of his houses Arizona. But that’s a big if. If you were registered as a target of opportunity in a park or something and you haven’t ever been to your polling place, you might not go. Or you might not have a ride. Or your kid might be sick. Or you might really not know how to use the voting machine and find the whole thing too much of a hassle. (Or you might live in East St. Louis and run into roadblocks and license checks on streets around the polls…)

So…this just gets interestinger and interestinger.

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