My Beautiful Wickedness

To me, the big story of the Oregon and KY primaries
May 21, 2008, 8:27 am
Filed under: Uncategorized

…are all these people NOT voting for the people still in the race. In the case of the GOP, I expected the presumptive Republican nominee to do better than he did, even though turnout was low. In Oregon, he’s only pulling around 85% of the vote and in some counties, he’s only pulling 78%. Remember, he’s unopposed. I don’t want to jump to conclusions (maybe these are all people who mailed in their ballots waaaay early?), but if this reflects people who actually drove to the polls to pull the lever for a guy with no chance in hell of winning, I think this indicates real trouble for the GOP this summer.

The story in Kentucky is somewhat better for the GOP, but there’s still a shed of votes from religious conservatives. Huckabee is consistently pulling away 10-12% of the vote. Granted, turnout for the GOP primary in KY was pretty miserable and some counties only got 150 people to the polls, but to me, this looks like McCain is in trouble in rural America. When a vet-loving state like KY won’t go for you, you’ve got problems. Whether this troubling erosion of party discipline will carry through to the fall, I don’t know. I’ll have to do some more analysis before I’m willing to draw a conclusion.

The Dem story is the same, but to a lesser degree. Edwards continues to make a surprisingly strong showing for a guy who stopped campaigning months ago. Between 3-10% of Kentuckians (depending on the county) would rather vote for a white man who isn’t running than vote for a black man or a white woman who still remain in the race. Oregon Dems are only reporting Clinton/Obama votes on their electoral map, so I’d have to go fishing for some raw data to really figure out what was going on and I don’t have that kind of time this morning. However, the KY result suggests to me that there are candidate problems in the offing for Dems as well.


2 Comments so far
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I think you’ve nailed it. Since before this all started, my guess has been that this race is going to be decided by who stays home in larger numbers come November.

Comment by Gerald

Obama will win. He doesn’t care about racist whites. He doesn’t need their votes. Actually, he would rather not have them. You’ll see.

Comment by Jeramiah Smith

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